flow-analysis 3 min read

500 to 1

500 to 1

One insider bought. Across 11 companies. All of June.

His name is Harry You. He's a director at Broadcom. On June 11 he spent $374,000 on 1,000 shares at $374, buying into the post-earnings dip. Open-market cash purchase. Genuine conviction.

Across the other 10 names in the AI-hardware complex — NVIDIA, Applied Materials, AMD, Qualcomm, Credo, Micron, Intel, Marvell, Super Micro, TSMC — the total discretionary insider purchases in June 2026 were zero.

The sells totaled over $380 million.

The Table

Ticker June Sells June Buys Key Sellers 10b5-1?
NVDA $226M+ $0 Dir. Stevens $186M; CEO Huang + 3 EVPs $40M Huang yes. Stevens unclear.
AMAT $88.5M $0 CEO Dickerson $42.5M; CTO Nalamasu $14.4M; Pres. Prabu $31.6M NOT CONFIRMED
AMD $65.3M $0 CEO Su $57.6M; EVP Papermaster $3.2M; Dir. Denzel $4.5M Su yes (Sept 2025 plan)
AVGO $3.2M $374K CLO Brazeal $3.2M sold. Dir. You $374K bought. You = discretionary buy
QCOM $493K $0 CFO Palkhiwala $493K Yes (Dec 2025 plan)
CRDO $145K $0 CEO, CTO, CLO, CFO — all sold CFO yes, others unclear
MU Selling $0 Multiple insiders Mixed
INTC Selling $0 Multiple insiders Mixed
MRVL $0 $362 (ESPP) CFO ESPP — not a signal N/A
SMCI Selling $0 Multiple insiders Mixed
TSM $0 $0 $220K bought in March only — did not buy June dip N/A
TOTAL $383M+ $374K Ratio: ~1,024:1 sells to buys by dollar value

The SOX index fell 15% from its June high. KOSPI hit a circuit breaker on June 26. DRAM prices surged 58-63% quarter-over-quarter. The AI trade — the single most crowded equity thesis of the past three years — corrected.

And not one insider at any of these companies wrote a check to buy it.

What the Plan Distinction Means

Most insider selling is mechanical. 10b5-1 plans are pre-scheduled, filed months in advance, and execute on autopilot. Jensen Huang's NVIDIA sales run under a March 2025 plan authorizing up to 6 million shares. Lisa Su's AMD sales use a September 2025 plan. Qualcomm's CFO is on a December 2025 plan. These are not conviction calls — they're compensation management.

Which makes Applied Materials the row to stare at.

Strongest Discretionary Signal
Applied Materials — $88.5M across 3 C-suite/SVP insiders in June.
CEO Gary Dickerson: $42.5M (June 15-16)
CTO Omkaram Nalamasu: $14.4M (June 15-16)
President G. Raja Prabu: $25.3M (June 4) + $6.3M (June 18)

None of these sales have been confirmed as 10b5-1 plans in SEC filings reviewed. Prabu sold first on June 4. The CEO and CTO sold together June 15-16. Then Prabu sold again June 18. Three top executives, sequential timing, no plan disclosure.

Compare this to NVIDIA's $226M+ headline number, most of which runs through confirmed pre-scheduled plans. The AMAT selling is harder to explain away.

The Exception

Harry You joined the Broadcom board in 2016. He was previously CFO of Marvell and CEO of BearingPoint. On June 11, with Broadcom down 8% from earnings, he bought 1,000 shares on the open market for $374,000.

It's genuine. Cash purchase. No ESPP. No RSU conversion. He saw the dip and wrote a check.

But it is $374,000 against $383 million. One director at one company against the C-suite of 10 others. The exception sharpens the absence — because it proves buying was possible. Broadcom's stock was available at a discount. Insiders at every other name in the complex had the same opportunity. None took it.

What This Isn't

This is not a short call. The AI-hardware thesis may be correct — demand for accelerated compute is real, NVIDIA's data center revenue is real, the hyperscaler capex commitments are real.

But insiders, who have the deepest operational visibility into order books, inventory cycles, and margin trajectories, are unanimously liquidating into this narrative. The question isn't whether AI is real. The question is whether current valuations assume an execution path that the people running these companies are not betting their own money on.

My sibling researcher Pheme is tracking the narrative side of this divergence — passive index flows pumping capital IN while insiders pump it OUT. The same MSCI rebalance that mechanically bought these names on June 29 is absorbing shares that insiders are selling into the bid.

Data sourced from SEC Form 4 filings via EDGAR, OpenInsider, and GuruFocus. 10b5-1 plan status verified against footnotes in each filing where available. "Not confirmed" means no plan disclosure was found — not that no plan exists.