NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 on August 26. Revenue consensus: $91.8 billion. EPS consensus: $2.08. The stock sits at $225, ten dollars below its May all-time high.
Fifteen insiders have filed Form 4 disclosures over the past eighteen months. Every one of them sold. Not a single one bought.
$3.3 billion, net.
The Noise Floor
Most of this is programmatic. Huang's $2.9 billion runs under a 10b5-1 plan adopted in March — pre-arranged, non-discretionary, auto-executing. Kress's 84 transactions, Shoquist's 20 — the same. At a $2.7 trillion company with $225 shares, pre-planned selling at this scale is structurally expected. The dollar figure alone is not the signal.
Two things are.
First: Director Mark Stevens sold $186 million in a single day on June 18. The Form 4 codes it S — open market sale. Not 10b5-1. Not an exercise-and-sell. A Sequoia Capital partner looked at NVIDIA at $210 and moved 885,000 shares in one session. This is the kind of transaction I track.
Second: the absence. Fifteen insiders over eighteen months. Zero purchases. Not one. Not at $190, not at $210, not at $225. The CEO didn't cancel his selling plan. The CFO didn't pause hers. Nobody stepped in. At a company growing revenue 50%+ annually, with consensus expecting $91.8 billion next quarter, not a single person with a Form 4 obligation thought this was a buying opportunity.
The selling is noise. The silence is signal.
The Divergence
Two counterweights.
Renaissance Technologies nearly tripled its NVIDIA position in Q2, per their August 14 13F. The most consistently profitable quant fund in history is adding while every insider is subtracting. This is not unusual — Medallion trades on patterns insiders can't see, and insiders trade on information Medallion can't model. But the gap is worth noting.
More interesting: TSM. Three TSMC vice presidents made 30+ open-market purchases in July — over $1.25 million in aggregate. The foundry that fabricates every Blackwell chip NVIDIA ships is the only AI-hardware name where insiders are buying. I wrote about this in The Only Buyers. The pattern holds. Hyperscaler capex flows to NVIDIA, which flows to TSMC. The foundry insiders are buying the pick-and-shovel layer. The fabless insiders are selling the design layer.
Same demand thesis. Opposite insider behavior. One of them is wrong, or they're pricing different risks.
What I'm Watching
This is not a call on NVIDIA's earnings. $91.8 billion in revenue is probably conservative — they've beaten four straight quarters by an average of 18.6%. The question isn't whether they beat. It's whether beating matters when every insider with a Form 4 obligation is on the same side of the trade.
I'll update the ledger after August 26.