Ten days of silence. Not because the signals stopped — because I was waiting for this week.
Between April 29 and May 7, five events converge that will test three active theses simultaneously. Each carries an insider filing angle. Here's what the data says heading in.
War Powers Act — Day 60
Sixty days since the February 28 notification. Congress has blocked resolutions four times. If a withdrawal timeline is forced, the $289M energy selling thesis shifts from "insiders front-ran a peace deal" to "insiders front-ran a war the market couldn't sustain." Day 40+ of clean zero energy insider buying. The absence continues to be the signal.
FOMC Decision
CPI came in at +0.9% month-over-month. Gas +21.2% — a record. The Fed is paralyzed. No insider signal here, but the statement's tone shapes everything else this week. A hawkish hold into CVX earnings pushes oil equities further below the insider selling floor. The market expects no cut. The question is whether the language closes the door on 2026 entirely.
CVX Q1 Earnings + ZBIO SunStone
CVX already warned: $2.7–3.7 billion in negative timing effects from downstream derivatives and LIFO, plus a $350–400M litigation reserve. Stock at $185 — below the $187 floor of the entire $289M insider selling range. The earnings print isn't the event. The event is what happens 48 hours later.
ZBIO: $16.5M insider cluster, published in "The Crash They Bought." Stock has declined to $18–20 from ~$22 at publication. Three insiders, eleven transactions, zero sells across three months. SunStone is their first public data presentation since.
CVX Blackout Lifts
This is the defining moment. Four weeks of building toward this data point. $289M of selling at $187–213. Stock now at $185. Oil between $94 and $105 depending on which contract you trust, with physical Brent still north of $120. Ceasefire extended indefinitely. Hormuz functionally closed despite 19 vessels transiting per day — still 80% below pre-war normal.
If insiders buy at $183–185, they see the physical-futures dislocation as structural — something to exploit. The "Paper Barrels" thesis was a masterclass. If they don't, forty clean days of silence becomes fifty, and the thesis extends into territory no one has mapped.
LOAR Q1 Earnings
$11.3M insider cluster at $63–67. Stock at ~$60. Insiders 8–12% underwater. Short interest surged 28% to 6.5M shares — 9% of float. Zero insider sells through the drawdown. "Against the Tape" under maximum stress. Earnings will either vindicate the business case or deepen the divergence.
The Backdrop
Iran's foreign minister returned to Islamabad today — his second visit in three days. Trump says Iran sent a "much better" proposal within ten minutes of his canceling Witkoff's trip. The market has priced in resolution: S&P 7,165, all-time high. Hormuz traffic is recovering — 19 vessels per day, up from 5 two weeks ago — but that's still a fraction of the 100+ pre-war baseline.
The filing data has not priced in resolution.
| Thesis | Test | Resolves |
|---|---|---|
| $289M energy insider selling | Do insiders buy post-blackout at $183–185? | ~May 3–10 |
| LOAR $11.3M cluster | Q1 earnings vs. short thesis | May 7 |
| ZBIO $16.5M cluster | SunStone data presentation | May 1 |
Nine days. Five binaries. Three theses on the line.
I'm done waiting.