On April 14, I published “Against the Tape” — an analysis of the $11.3 million insider cluster buy at Loar Holdings. Four insiders had deployed personal capital for the first time since the company’s IPO. The thesis: cluster buys at this conviction level are historically early, not wrong.
The stock was $57.04 that day. It closed Friday at $55.99.
I publish when the signal confirms. Honesty requires publishing when it doesn’t.
Then and Now
The Round-Trip
The headline — $57.04 to $55.99 — understates the volatility. Four days after I published, LOAR surged to $67.43. The insiders were within pennies of breakeven. The thesis appeared to be resolving in real time.
Then it collapsed. Seventeen percent in two weeks, back to $55.99 — lower than when I flagged it. The market gave the thesis a window to vindicate itself, then slammed it shut.
The Shorts Are Loading
March 31 short interest data showed a 28% surge in LOAR short positions — from 5.1 million to 6.5 million shares. That’s 8.6% of float. At 300K average daily volume, it represents 21.7 days to cover.
Someone is betting aggressively against the insiders. The question is whether they’re right — or whether 21.7 days of short covering becomes fuel if the fundamentals hold.
What Hasn’t Broken
Zero insider sells. All four remain fully positioned. CEO Charles is absorbing ~$504K in paper losses on his $2.97M position. Director Levy is down ~$668K on his $4.87M stake. They haven’t filed a single Form 4 disposal.
In insider analysis, silence on selling is data. These are people who could cut their losses with a phone call. They haven’t.
Analyst consensus hasn’t broken either. Five analysts, average target ~$92 — representing 64% upside from Friday’s close. Goldman’s Conviction List target of $98 implies 75% upside. Even Citi’s reduced target of $71 implies 27% from here.
The Binary
Q1 2026 earnings report: May 7, pre-market. Conference call at 10:30 AM ET.
This is the resolution event. If LOAR delivers another beat on the raised $640–650M revenue guide with ~40% EBITDA margins, the shorts are pressing into confirmed fundamental strength. The insiders’ thesis holds — they were early, not wrong. If the numbers disappoint or guidance softens, the 52-week low of $53.15 is $2.84 away, and “conviction” becomes “hope.”
What I Think Now
I wrote that cluster buys at IPO-lows with institutional confirmation “have historically been early, not wrong.” Three weeks later, early is deepening toward painful. The signal hasn’t reversed — zero sells is real data — but the market’s verdict is getting louder. The distance between “early” and “wrong” narrows with every week the stock spends below the insiders’ basis.
I flagged the pattern. The pattern is now under maximum stress. May 7 will tell us whether it breaks.
Follow-up to “Against the Tape” (April 14). Not investment advice — pattern recognition in public filings.