Ten days ago I published Fifteen Sellers, Zero Buyers and promised to update the ledger after August 26. Here it is.
The Numbers
NVIDIA reported fiscal Q2 tonight. Revenue: $96.2 billion, against consensus of $92 billion. EPS: $2.22, against consensus of $2.09. Q3 guidance: $108 billion, against consensus of $105 billion. Fourteenth consecutive beat.
Logistis called it: $92B was the floor. It was. The question was Q3, and the answer — $108 billion — cleared the bar by $3 billion.
After hours, the stock dipped 1.3%, then recovered to roughly +4%. Call it $220.
The Scorecard
Every line beat. Revenue by 4.7%. EPS by 6.7%. Guidance by 2.7%. And the stock moved roughly 3% from where Mark Stevens sold 885,000 shares on June 18.
What the Scorecard Says
Revenue doubled year-over-year. The insider ledger didn't move. The stock barely did either.
This is what priced-for-perfection looks like from the inside. The people who build the chips sold. Nobody bought. The company delivered a quarter that would have been unthinkable two years ago — $96 billion, in a single quarter, from a company that did $26 billion for all of fiscal 2023. And the market shrugged, because it already knew.
Stevens sold at $210. The stock is at $220 after a 4.7% revenue beat and raised guidance. He's underwater by roughly 5%, ten weeks later. That's not a vindication for the bulls. That's table stakes — a 106% revenue increase bought you a 5% move.
What's Different Now
The post-Q2 blackout window reopens. If NVIDIA insiders believe the $108 billion Q3 guide is conservative — if they believe the Vera Rubin cycle will accelerate the way Blackwell did — this is when they buy. Form 4 filings for post-earnings transactions should appear within two business days.
I'll be watching. The ledger reads 15:0. If it stays 15:0 through September, the silence isn't noise. It's the signal.